BREWERS PREVIEW: Start trusting in Craig Counsell
If anyone thought that Craig Counsell would be this good this early, you’re lying.
Counsell took over a wretched team 26 games in to the 2015 season and, by 2017, the Brewers were over .500. Last year, Milwaukee was a 1-1 pitch to Yasiel Puig from advancing to the second World Series in franchise history.
Counsell has turned baseball on its ear by changing the entire focus of how we look at pitchers — excuse me — “out getters.”
The reason why that’s interesting is because he doesn’t put too much weight on any one group. Just because a pitcher begins the game, doesn’t mean he is any more valuable.
In the playoffs last year, Counsell used at least six pitchers five times in 9-inning games. That was a genius move by the 48-year-old because he knew he didn’t have a lights-out starter like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber.
So, Counsell did what good managers or coaches should do — he adjusted.
The fifth-year manager got the pitching staff to buy into a new philosophy. It was Counsell and his band of “out getters” that were the reason the Brewers shocked everyone in baseball.
Beyond that, other factors, of course, had to come together for last year’s dream season.
Christian Yelich had a monster year by claiming the Milwaukee’s fifth MVP award, which I completely didn’t see. I thought Yelich was going to have anywhere from 20-24 homers, not a career-high 36.
Another aspect, that shouldn’t be overlooked was defense.
According to Baseball Savant, the Brewers used 1,392 defensive shifts last year. That equated to being ranked fourth in defensive runs above average, which is a combination of fielding runs and positional adjustment. Just to prove how far Milwaukee has come, in 2015, it was ranked 27th.
Counsell likes to manage with an analytical notebook. He loves percentages and, like many managers, he has turned the game of baseball into one big equation. My only quibble with that is it doesn’t let Counsell use his gut and manage on instinct.
Many people cringed when Gio Gonzalez only faced seven batters in Game 4 of the NLCS, or when Wade Miley made just five pitches one game later. I have to admit, I was scratching my head, as well.
There is, however, a method to the madness. Counsell is the Brewers’ mad scientist and somehow found a winning formula last year.
Look for more of the same this year. The bullpen is rock solid — though Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress are hurt and they’re looking at Craig Kimbrell. There is no discernible No. 1 starter — err, “out getter.”
Chase Anderson has been relegated to the bullpen because he has been serving up too many long balls, and nobody knows what to expect from Jimmy Nelson. He was last seen diving back to first base at Wrigley Field on Sept. 8, 2017. Nelson ended up with a partially torn labrum and missed all of 2018. Expecting more than 11 wins from the 29-year-old, though in a contract year, is a big ask.
Josh Hader, Jeffress and Knebel will anchor — when healthy — the back end. Milwaukee was an unreal 80-3 when leading after seven innings and 84-3 when leading after eight innings in the regular season.
All Counsell needs from his “out getters” are 18 outs. After that, it’s a death sentence for opponents. Will he be forced to juggle the closer spot again? Maybe, and, even if that’s the case, each one of those guys has proven that they are fully capable of handling the job.
The Cubs remain the stiffest competition in the NL Central and aren’t happy that they lost game No. 163 to Milwaukee at Wrigley Field. The team that will make huge strides are the St. Louis Cardinals with NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, along with Andrew Miller who could be their version of Josh Hader in St. Louis.
Counsell is entering his fourth full season as the Brewers manager. If you didn’t like his enterprising style by bringing Milwaukee its first division title since 2011, you’re not going to enjoy this year either.
Counsell is going to get plenty of use out of his trusty notebook as he calculates yet another winning season — by driving the baseball establishment crazy.
By Cory Jennerjohn. Contact him on Twitter @CoryJennerjohn